The Triad industrial market finished the third quarter of 2026 tight, with modest rent growth and a construction pipeline that looks different from the last cycle. Here are the numbers and what they mean.
The numbers
| Metric | Cushman & Wakefield | CBRE |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory tracked | 255.9M SF | ~127M SF |
| Vacancy | 5.5% (+10 bps QoQ) | 6.7% (−30 bps QoQ) |
| Net absorption, Q3 | ~230,000 SF | +406,000 SF |
| Net absorption, YTD | ~1.45M SF | — |
| Avg. asking rent | $6.37 (+1.4% QoQ) | $6.60 NNN |
| Deliveries, Q3 | 500,000+ SF | none |
The two firms track different sets of buildings. Compare each to itself over time rather than to each other.
What happened this quarter
Leasing stayed healthy. About 770,000 SF of new leases were signed (Cushman & Wakefield), led by Litens Automotive's 155,520 SF at 40 Logistics Center in East Guilford, CBX Solutions' 94,500 SF at West Point Industrial Park in West Forsyth, Warehouse Republic's 94,454 SF in Kernersville, and a 100,000 SF lease in Asheboro.
New supply is leasing slowly. About a quarter of the space delivered in Q3 was vacant at completion, including a 130,000 SF speculative building on Millstream Rd. American Tire's move out of 102,000 SF on Tucker St also added vacancy.
Rents ticked up. Average asking rent rose about 1.4% to $6.37. Flex led at about $8.48; warehouse/distribution was about $6.33 and manufacturing about $5.80.
The pipeline is changing shape. Cushman & Wakefield's submarket table shows about 5.1 million SF under construction, concentrated in East Guilford (about 2.0M SF) and Randolph County (about 2.3M SF), much of it build-to-suit. Speculative projects include Rock Creek Center (about 424,000 SF) and Alliance Rock Creek (about 260,000 SF, broke ground in Q3). CBRE expects about 553,000 SF of spec space to deliver in Q4.
Sales: a wide spread
2026 sales show buyers paying up for function and steeply discounting obsolescence. Union Cross in Winston-Salem traded at about $112/SF, 1736 Whites Kennel Rd in Burlington at about $104/SF, and a five-building High Point park at about $24/SF. See the market report for the full list.
The rate backdrop
The 10-year Treasury was about 5.09% on October 16, up roughly a point from a year earlier, after the Federal Reserve raised its target range in September. Higher long rates pressure cap rates and reduce leverage for investors, which favors owner-users with SBA financing and owners using sale-leasebacks to unlock equity.
What to do with this
- Owners: functional buildings are in demand, but buyers are underwriting higher financing costs and, in Guilford and Davidson, higher 2027 taxes. Get a current valuation before deciding.
- Tenants: use new Class A vacancy in East Guilford and West Forsyth as leverage; in Kernersville, North Guilford and Randolph, move early. Send requirements.
- Investors: the spread between functional and obsolete buildings is the opportunity, if you underwrite capex realistically. Get deal alerts.
Sources
- Cushman & Wakefield, Greensboro/Winston-Salem Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026 (Oct 15, 2026)
- CBRE, Q3 2026 Greensboro/Winston-Salem Industrial Figures (Oct 9, 2026)
- NAI Piedmont Triad, Q2 2026 Market Reports (Q2 2026)
- YCharts — 10-Year Treasury Rate (Oct 16, 2026)
Industrial and commercial broker with KW Commercial in Greensboro, NC, 16+ years as an investor and broker, and author of The Industrial Broker. (336) 580-3432
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